Last night on MSNBC’s Hardball Rep. Jim Moran (D) from VA and Phil Gingrey (R) from Georgia were debating the Iraq War Policy. As would be expected, the debate became heated as Rep. Moran argued to pull our forces out of Iraq and Rep. Gingrey supported the Bush Iraq Policy.
Rep. Gingrey said he wanted to remain in Iraq until we achieved VICTORY just like Bush wanted. The Moderator then asked Rep. Gingrey what he meant by “Victory in Iraq”? He said his definition was the same as President Bush’s. We had to remain in Iraq until we have been able to train enough Iraqi Military to secure the country so the government of Iraq could function and we would leave a stable Iraq.
I wish the moderator had followed up on that response. Today we have 160,000 American Military and 350,000 Iraqi Military we have trained over the past 4 years. With over 500,000 troops we can not stop or even materially reduced the daily attacks thought the country. It is true some areas where additional U.S. and Iraqi forces have started operating the attacks are down. However, attacks in areas that have been quiet for years have begun and the overall violence thought Iraq has not changed. The U.S. had the greatest number of casualties during the last quarter as the Surge ramped up.
I would argue it would take 5 Iraqi Military to equal the effectiveness of one U.S. Military including the support we provide our ground forces. Therefore to have enough Iraqi Troops to just equal the military capability we have today would mean we would need to train another 700,000 Iraqi personnel. That would then just equal the force we currently have on the ground which is not capable of ending the violence.
Does anyone believe the American Public will allow us to stay in Iraq long enough to fulfill the Bush definition of Victory? Add the fact that the political changes that everyone, including Bush claims are essential for an end to the sectarian violence, are not being accomplished. Bush wants to wait for September and the reports of Crocker and Petraeus. Guess what—we will not have trained another 700,000 Iraqi’s by September 2007 and given the fact that the Iraqi Legislature is going on recess in August there will not be any more progress toward a political settlement.
Therefore, what is the purpose of waiting until September to receive a progress report that can not be any different then the interim report provided this week? All that will happen is we will suffer more dead and injured and spend another $24 Billion in the two months as we wait for the same answers we have today!