Evaluation of the policies of George W. Bush and his Republican conservatives on America.
Published on February 16, 2005 By COL Gene In Politics


President Bush continues his discussions across the country about his change to Social Security. The Social Security question has two basic components. First, is the philosophy of what Social Security is and what it should be for workers in America? Second, is the mechanics of how to maintain the solvency of Social Security?

Social Security has always been a guaranteed minimum retirement benefit for the American worker. Something that was predictable and guaranteed. The problem with the Bush solution is that it alters the basic philosophy of Social Security. What George W. Bush is proposing is to convert the floor into an elevator. There is no question that individual equity accounts hold the potential of increasing a worker’s retirement but it also holds the possibility of having less should the market be down at the time of a worker’s retirement. There is a place for individual equity accounts and that place is over and above the minimum guaranteed floor of Social Security. Therefore, we should maintain the philosophy of Social Security as a guaranteed minimum and encourage workers to create individual equity accounts during their working life IN ADDITION to Social Security.

If we are to maintain a guaranteed minimum for Social Security, we need to fund the system through the bubble of the baby boomers. At the present time, 3 1/2 people are working for every one receiving benefits. At the present time, the taxes being collected are more than the benefits being paid out. Because of the baby boomers that will change starting in about 2018 and there will be only two people working for each person receiving benefits. When the baby boomer bubble has passed (in about 70 years), the system will right itself and return to a relationship similar to what exists today. Therefore, the issue is to finance retirement benefits under Social Security for the huge increase in population that occurred after World War II. That should be done by increasing the Social Security Trust Fund so it can bridge the funding deficit created by that bubble.

There are two suggestions that have been made to help fund the Social Security deficit. One is to augment the trust fund by General fund revenues which will require us to first balance the budget. The second idea is to extend the income limit on Social Security wages (currently the first $90,000 of earned income) the same as the Medicare tax. That would cause many billions of additional tax dollars to flow into the Social Security Trust Fund. That additional money could then be invested in equities to augment the yield to the trust fund over and above the 3% that the treasury bonds are currently paying on bonds held by the trust fund. This concept has been successfully used in EVERY state pension plan in the United States. Why would we not duplicate a successful strategy that is keeping our state pension plans solvent for Social Security?

The American people need to contact their Senators and Congressman to tell them that they want to maintain the minimum guaranteed Social Security system and have it funded by increasing the Social Security tax limit and investing that additional money in a sound mix of equity investments. Although some might benefit from the equity accounts proposed by President Bush, I believe the guaranteed Social Security income is far more important to the vast majority of Americans! Every American worker should let Congress know how they feel. This is not a decision that should be made by the president or congress without knowing what the America people want!

Comments
on Feb 16, 2005
If you take some money and throw it in the bank at todays intrest rates {they will rise} you would have a safe..{fdic} way to save and a much lager yeild of you own money. Stop being so obstructionist, and wait till the ENTIRE PROPOSAL IS LAYED OUT AND your options too, IF {it's a choice remember?} you choose to do so.
on Feb 16, 2005
My point, no change should be made without the majority of Americans being in agreement. The rate paid on the bonds in the SS Trust Fund is 3%.That is more than my bank is paying.Where is the money comming from for those that choose the separate accounts? Where is the money to administer the individual accounts commig from? Bush never provides answers to those questuions.
on Feb 16, 2005
The rate paid on the bonds in the SS Trust Fund is 3%


And yet you are the same individual that doesn't want the government to borrow funds to pay for Iraq/Afghanistan?

If the government doesn't borrow money, it doesn't pay interest on those bonds, and if it doesn't pay interest on those "guaranteed obligations" there is no income for the millions of people that rely on it, right?


Seriously, it is such fun to debate economics with people that claim to know the subject matter yet miss the big picture because there were trees in the way.
on Feb 16, 2005
Seriously, it is such fun to debate economics with people that claim to know the subject matter yet miss the big picture because there were trees in the way.


ouch....
on Feb 16, 2005
I do not want the Fed to go into debt. The fact is that we are in debt and that the SS Trust Fund holds some of those bonds and is being paid 3% Interest. I would like the SS Trust Fund to invest in corporate bonds and equities the same as state pension plans use to invest their trust funds.

there is no inconsistency in my position. We need to balance the federal budget, create a fiscal surplus each year and begin paying down debt. So for Social Security is concerned, we need to increase the Social Security trust fund by lifting the limit on Social Security earnings which are taxed and invest those added funds and a mix of equity and bond funds.
on Feb 16, 2005
If the government doesn't borrow money, it doesn't pay interest on those bonds, and if it doesn't pay interest on those "guaranteed obligations" there is no income for the millions of people that rely on it, right?


So do you put your credit card bill on another credit card? Because that is basically what you are supporting here: Borrowing today to pay off yesterday's borrowing.

And remember, yesterday's borrowing was UNNECESSARY. We had a budget surplus when GWB came into office -- much of it due to the SS surplus.

Instead of that money earning money, GWB gave away that surplus with his reckless tax cuts. Now he's claiming SS is in 'crisis'. Well, giving away the surplus & running up record deficits doesn't build GWB's -- ahem -- credibility on fiscal matters.
on Feb 16, 2005
Progresive USA

Right On. When the Social Security needs to begin using the trust fund, the treasury will need to sell new bonds in order to repay the bonds held by Social Security. The same thing is true for the bonds being held by the Medicare trust fund. We had better hope someone will be willing to loan the federal government money when they need to begin repaying the bonds held by Social Security and Medicare.

The entire way George W. Bush is approaching fiscal management of this country is an impending disaster. Between his idea to borrow for so security, the annual deficit which he never ends plus the existing debt and the problems with Medicare, this country will remember George W. Bush for decades as we attempt to bail out of all the worst financial mess this country has seen since the Great Depression.
on Feb 16, 2005
Instead of that money earning money, GWB gave away that surplus with his reckless tax cuts. Now he's claiming SS is in 'crisis'. Well, giving away the surplus & running up record deficits doesn't build GWB's -- ahem -- credibility on fiscal matters.


How nice of you to live in such a pessimistic world.

G.W. Bush came into office with projected budget surpluses. Not real surpluses, but projected surpluses. Based upon assumptions of traditional and historical budget levels. No wild increases in any departmental budgets, discretionary spending increases, homeland security or war-time budgetary needs, or any other such unplanned expenditures.

Secondly, it's not GWB's budget. GWB sends a blueprint to congress. Congress takes that blueprint under advisement and passes their own version of the budget. That budget may match the one the President provided, or may include enough pork to choke all of us.

You may be correct that there was a budgetary surplus due to the SS surplus, but then again, that small surplus at that point in time does nothing for Social Security obligations in the future, which is when the house of cards comes crashing down. As more people retire and start sucking their benefits out of the system, the system goes into the red, and depending on life expectancies could stay there permanently.


Should the government be in the permanently borrowing business, hell no. But the fact of the matter is that neither everyone's budget is always working this way. Unless you living entirely on cash, you are cycling through your credit. It could never be determined if you paid off old debts or new except for the fact that you retire some obligations in favor of newer, hopefully lower rate, debt. Businesses do this, and many households do. Not to the extreme you mention, but in another way. Anyone that keeps a balance on their credit cards is still "borrowing today," even if they aren't actively borrowing new money. If they carry that balance, they have borrowed today.


In either case, economics is a very complex field. Looking at things in a simplistic manner does nothing but confuse the situation. Think of the situation as a vast lake, where a pebble tossed in at one point will cause ripples that continue out to the shores of the lake. If you toss a pebble in at a different point, the reaction there will be same, but the reaction where both sets of ripples hit each other isn't easy to predict. Throw in another pebble in a different place, you make the situation even tougher.

Consider that any changes made in the budgetary process are much the same. The change may seem simplistic enough, but yet it will result in impacts on things not forseen.


Finally, lest I forget, you seem to have forgotten that recession that was handed to GWB in the post Y2K let-down / bubble burst. If the Clinton economic policies hadn't resulted in that slowdown, if the Clinton over-seen big business boom that wasn't (with MCI-Worldcom, Enron and other big companies faking their profit numbers) hadn't happened, and if the job market hadn't gone to hell virtually overnight post Y2K, then the numbers you are crying about today could be very different. Never mind the fact that we were physically attacked on 9/11 and eventually had to live through the financial impact after that. Never mind that we had to spend money on national security that we didn't anticipate having to spend. Never mind that we spent money on a war in Afghanistan, and later in Iraq. These were unforseen, and had they not had an impact on us all, we may very well still be enjoying surpluses in the budget that we'd be screaming to get back.
on Feb 16, 2005
when Bush came to office we were running an annual surplus of $125 billion per year. He did exactly the same thing as Ronald Reagan he cut taxes and increased spending. The recession did contribute to a downturn as did the additional security after 9/11. The fact remains that the tax cuts have not stimulated the economy to the extent necessary to increase revenues and pay for the tax cuts. When George Bush took office the national debt stood at 5.7 trillion. It is approaching 8 trillion and by the president's own projections will be at 10 trillion when he leaves office. He has created a structural deficit by cutting federal revenues while the same time increasing expenditures.

His fiscal policy is a responsible. Since 1980 taxpayers in the United States have paid $6.5 trillion in interest which has bought the country nothing. The president's plan never ends the spiral ever increasing deficits and ever-increasing interest on that debt. We simply cannot afford the lost revenue from the tax cuts to the wealthy. It is time we understand that there needs to be some sacrifice and the only economic group that can truly afford that sacrifice is the top five % who did so well during the 1990s.
on Feb 16, 2005
How nice of you to live in such a pessimistic world.


Hey, I'm not the one running around yelling 'crisis' about SS.

G.W. Bush came into office with projected budget surpluses. Not real surpluses, but projected surpluses.


Incorrect. GWB inherited a record surplus. Link and Link (p22) (Warning: This link is 2 MB)

Secondly, it's not GWB's budget. GWB sends a blueprint to congress.


I didn't say it was GWB's budget. Check my post. I said it was his tax cuts.

that small surplus at that point in time does nothing for Social Security obligations in the future, which is when the house of cards comes crashing down.


35 years in the future. The budget deficit & Medicare in particular much closer to crisis now today. A couple TRILLION more in borrow & spend policies is not the solution. In fact, it's the **opposite** of the solution. Republicans used to know that.
Should the government be in the permanently borrowing business, hell no.


Agreed. Certainly not at this level.

It could never be determined if you paid off old debts or new except for the fact that you retire some obligations in favor of newer, hopefully lower rate, debt. Businesses do this, and many households do.


Respectfully, that's 'rolling over' your debt into new issues or a new payment cycle. That's different from borrowing from a new source to pay off an old loan, which is what you suggested in your earlier post. In this case, GWB is talking about a massive loan because of a debt coming 35 years from now. Can you reliably predict 35 years out? A lot can happen in 35 years. Heck, very capable people can't even project the federal deficit accurately TWO years out!

you seem to have forgotten that recession that was handed to GWB in the post Y2K let-down / bubble burst


Incorrect on both counts. I didn't forget & that's not the case. GDP growth rates for 2000-2001 per Link :
2000 Q1 = 2.6
2000 Q2 = 4.8
2000 Q3 = .6
2000 Q4 = 1.1
2001 Q1 = -.6
2001 Q2 = -1.6
2001 Q3 = -.3
2001 Q4 = 2.7

If the Clinton economic policies hadn't resulted in that slowdown, if the Clinton over-seen big business boom that wasn't (with MCI-Worldcom, Enron and other big companies faking their profit numbers) hadn't happened, and if the job market hadn't gone to hell virtually overnight post Y2K, then the numbers you are crying about today could be very different.


You seem to forget that the Fed boosted interest rates to over 6 percent in 1999-2000. It wasn't the Clinton economic policies. The Fed took the punchbowl away, as they must, due to irrational exuberance.

Never mind the fact that we were physically attacked on 9/11 and eventually had to live through the financial impact after that. Never mind that we had to spend money on national security that we didn't anticipate having to spend. Never mind that we spent money on a war in Afghanistan, and later in Iraq. These were unforseen, and had they not had an impact on us all, we may very well still be enjoying surpluses in the budget that we'd be screaming to get back.


I agree that all that stuff was unforseen. But GWB puts war costs off budget. And those events don't negate the impact of GWB's tax cuts on the budget. Big direct impact.

And those events don't negate my point, either: Borrowing TRILLIONS today to avert debt 35 years from today is counterproductive both short term & long term. Oh yeah, and it's anything but 'conservative'
on Feb 16, 2005
Progressive USA

One of the biggest lies is that the Republicans are fiscal conservatives. They may be conservative with respect to some of their religious convictions but in terms of the way they have been running the financial affairs of this country, they are screaming liberals.
on Feb 16, 2005
The entire way George W. Bush is approaching fiscal management of this country is an impending disaster.


Borrowing for your day-to-day expenses is a recipe for disaster, I agree. Borrowing for long-term infrastructure items, like roads, bridges, hospitals & schools, is fine.

Ronald Reagan got the party started when he racked up twice as much debt as all his predecessors COMBINED.

Today 7 pecent of the budget goes to pay interest on the national debt. And 17 percent of the budget comes from borrowed money -- borrowed from Red China & Japan because that's who's buying our Treasuries.

This is the GOP in action: Borrow & spend.
on Feb 16, 2005
'moderateman' wrote:
If you take some money and throw it in the bank at todays intrest rates {they will rise} you would have a safe..{fdic} way to save and a much lager yeild of you own money.


Ha ha -- yeah, except we gotta BORROW that money & PAY interest on it before we see a dime of gain.

So that's 3 percent (at least) plus management fees before you get back to zero. What a deal!

Stop being so obstructionist, and wait till the ENTIRE PROPOSAL IS LAYED OUT AND your options too, IF {it's a choice remember?} you choose to do so.


Unlike you, I don't need to see a used car salesman crunch numbers in his office to know he's trying to sell me a lemon I don't want at any price.

And besides, if it's such a great proposal why doesn't GWB have it in hand before he starts barnstorming the US at taxpayer expense? And why won't he say where that $2 trillion is coming from?

PT Barnum was right.
on Feb 16, 2005
Today a sucker is born every second