Evaluation of the policies of George W. Bush and his Republican conservatives on America.
Published on October 30, 2007 By COL Gene In Politics

This is the cry of most Republicans and some Democrats. It is time to stop making this generalized statement and take an HONEST look at the Federal Budget. To help with that please take a look at the following Web Site: www.thebudgetgraph.com . It will give you a very clear picture of just where the Federal Government is spending YOUR tax dollars.

I have looked at this issue as well at the major issues that face our country and will impact spending for the foreseeable future. The objective was to see just where the spending cuts can be made to solve the nation’s fiscal problems.

First we need to understand ALL Federal spending falls into one of two types. One is “mandatory spending” and the other is termed “discretionary spending”. Both types have been increasing at a fast pace. When we talk about cutting the budget we must understand the items which are mandatory are NOT subject to cutting without violating promises that have been made by the Government of the United States. The three biggest elements in this category are Interest on the National Debt, Medicare and Social Security. In round numbers that mandatory spending is about $2 Trillion Dollars per year.

The other category is discretionary spending and is made up of elements that CAN be cut without violating the promises made by our country. The amount of that type of spending is about $800 Billion per year. If you fail to look at what is included in that $800 Billion one can come to the conclusion we can solve our fiscal problems by simply cutting this discretionary spending. Now it is time to take a look at the budget graph I referenced.

You will see the largest element in that category which comprises more then half of discretionary spending is National Defense. Another large component is Homeland Security. Help for the poor for Food Stamps and Medicaid rounds out the major items. These three make up MOST of the discretionary spending.

Let’s take a look at the largest spending items within the budget and the prospect for cutting them in the future.

Mandatory Items:

Social Security- this will increase at a growing rate as the Baby Boomers retire which will start in February 2008.

Medicare – This will increase for the same reason as Social Security plus the addition of the Prescription Drug Program and the increasing cost of health care. This will increase far more then Social Security.

Interest – This will continue to increase so long as we add to the National Debt. The national debt on Sept 30, 2006 was $8.5 Trillion. The National Debt on September 30, 2007 was $9 Trillion. Despite the lie Bush told that the annual deficit was $168 Billion that actual amount we added to the total debt was $500 Billion in FY 2007. Go to the U.S. Treasury web site for the actual amounts to the penny.

Discretionary Items:

National Defense – That will increase substantially because of the increase in the Active Duty strength, pay increases and because of the replacement of most of the equipment for the ground forces.

VA- This will expand in a major way to pay for the injured veterans from the Iraq war.

Homeland Security - That will need to increase as we build the border fence and add the needed border guards. The new equipment and new ID cards and systems will also require added spending. The Coast Guard will see an increase in spending as will federal law enforcement and intelligence services.

Medicaid - As more and more people are becoming eligible and medical cost increase, the cost of this program will increase.

Pell Grants – The lower interest rates for student loans will increase the overall cost of this program.

Federal Road and Bridge maintenance – This will increase given the condition of the ageing roads and bridges.

The above are the areas that surely will require added spending. These items make up the BULK of the overall spending. When you look at the magnitude of these items it will not be a surprise that spending will continue to increase. I would like to have ANYONE provide specifics as to where and by how much the so called “spending cuts” can take place that will both balance the budget and then provide a REAL Surplus to be used to pay down the over $9 Trillion dollar national debt.


The time has passed for statements like - “the problem is our Spending”. We need to provide specifics areas and amounts where spending can be CUT to come up with the money needed to balance the budget and begin paying down the debt! I believe the chance of spending cuts solving our fiscal problems to be about the same as winning the Power Ball Lottery! Remember, mandatory spending is just that!

Comments (Page 8)
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on Nov 02, 2007

I have shown that without violating the promises made by the Government, cuts alone will not balance the budget.

No you haven't. Explain how slowing down the rate we increase entitlement programs violates a promise. 

There is no inherent promise in how much we spend on Medicaid, Education, Health & Human Services, etc.

on Nov 02, 2007
Reply By: Frogboy Posted: Friday, November 02, 2007

I have shown that without violating the promises made by the Government, cuts alone will not balance the budget. NOT even close. We needed $500 Billion last year to not increase the National Debt.

No you haven't. Explain how slowing down the rate we increase entitlement programs violates a promise. To keep the promises in Entitlements see the herratage Foundation statement.

There is no inherent promise in how much we spend on Medicaid, Education, Health & Human Services, etc.

First, Medicaid, education, Health & Human services is in the $800 Billion of discretionary spending. We can cut that spending. These are what is in these in total and there is NO way we should or will completely end that spending because of the devistation impact on the very poor. For the most part that money goes to families with incomes of $21,000 or less per year:

Health & Human Services $ 68 Billion

Edication 56 Billion


Total $124 Billion

Look at waht the Hertage Foundation has to say about spending and the Baby Boomers:


Rein in runaway entitlement spending. The retirement of 77 million baby boomers could well push Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending to unsustainable levels. The total cost of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid is projected to leap from today’s 8.4 percent of GDP to 18.9 percent of GDP by 2050. In the absence of reform, lawmakers face three options: (1) raise taxes every year until they are 57 percent ($11,000 per household) higher than today; (2) eliminate every federal program except Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid by 2045; or (3) do nothing and watch the federal debt expand so that even a minor interest rate response would induce a spiral of rising debt and interest rates, threatening the entire economy. Clearly, reforming these programs is the only real option.
on Nov 02, 2007
. Clearly, reforming these programs is the only real option.


clearly they do. but just raising taxes is not reform. do not come yelling that we need to cut spending and then say that all we have to do is raise taxes. that is wrong and any idiot should know that.
on Nov 02, 2007

Here is what the federal government is spending money on:

  • $544.8 billion (20.90%) - Social Security
  • $512.1 billion (18.00%) - Defense
  • $359.5 billion (13.79%) - Unemployment and welfare
  • $345.7 billion (13.26%) - Medicare
  • $268.4 billion (10.30%) - Medicaid and other health related
  • $211.1 billion (8.10%) - Interest on debt
  • $88.7 billion (3.40%) - Education and training
  • $70.7 billion (2.71%) - Transportation
  • $68.4 billion (2.62%) - Veterans' benefits
  • $43.1 billion (1.65%) - Administration of justice
  • $38.4 billion (1.47%) - Foreign affairs
  • $31.2 billion (1.20%) - Natural resources and environment
  • $26.0 billion (1.00%) - Agriculture
  • $24.0 billion (0.92%) - Science and technology
  • $19.1 billion (0.73%) - Community and regional development
  • $17.8 billion (0.68%) - General government
  • $23.4 billion - Energy
  • Can't touch Social Security or Medicare or interest onthe debt or veterans benefits.

    Everything else is up for grabs.

    We spent 15% more last year than we collected.

    Tax receipts go up by around 4% per year currently.

    If we froze spending, it would take 4 years to have a surplus (of course, that's not quite true because you can't freeze spending on Social Security and other mandatory things).

    If you froze spending on programs you can realistically freeze spending on, it would take 8 years to have a surplus.

    No spending cuts needed. Just stop spending more for a few years.

    Now, if you wanted to make it go faster, you could cut some of the fat from education, medicaid, welfare.

    It's really not that hard to balance the budget if we really want to. But clearly, congress doesn't really want to.

    When we're spending $600 billion on freebies for "the poor" and "the poor" make up what? 30 million Americans, tops. Your'e literally providing each one of them with $20,000.  So don't talk to me about not having enough money for "the poor".

    More info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget,_2006

     

    on Nov 02, 2007
    Interest on the debt is not 211 Billion it is 430 Billion. You are using Net Interest which does not include the interest paid on the debt held in the Social Secirity and Medicare trust Funds. This is what we spent on Interest:

    Interest Expense Fiscal Year 2007
    September $ 19,186,822,742.64
    August $ 25,688,410,373.20
    July $ 22,658,839,309.36
    August $ 25,688,410,373.20
    July $ 22,658,839,309.36
    June $ 104,754,662,521.40
    May $ 26,969,267,293.50
    April $ 25,656,645,831.49
    March $ 21,253,370,063.26
    February $ 24,170,447,266.47
    January $ 18,132,425,570.82
    December $ 95,908,834,357.10
    November $ 20,305,104,412.28
    October $ 22,293,168,366.68

    Fiscal Year Total $429,977,998,108.20
    OR $430 Billion Dollars

    on Nov 02, 2007
    We increased the National debt in FY 2007 by $500 billion. At the end of 2006 it was $8.5 Billion and at the end of 2007 it was $9.0 Billion or an increase of $500 Billion!
    on Nov 02, 2007
    Gene at his Whack-A-Mole best.
    on Nov 02, 2007

    Gene, that is nonsense because Social Security is a pay as you go system just as Medicare is.

    When social security no longer balances out, what they'll do is raise the cap on earnings (currently around $92k) on it until it does.

    You can't mix accural and cash basis accounting which is what you're doing.

    The figures I give are the agreed upon numbers by non-insane people.

    Saying something that isn't true over and over doesn't suddenly make it true.

    on Nov 03, 2007
    Saying something that isn't true over and over doesn't suddenly make it true.


    but that is the democrat moto. if something isn't true. keep saying it is until everyone starts to believe you
    on Nov 03, 2007
    So we should listen to Nader then. Everything above $100,000 taxed 100%, or would that cost YOU too much money, Gene?

    One thing I've noticed about all these people who say "we" need to pay more in taxes. No one is stopping YOU from voluntarily paying more, but I bet you don't.
    on Nov 03, 2007


    Reply By: Draginol Posted: Friday, November 02, 2007
    Gene, that is nonsense because Social Security is a pay as you go system just as Medicare is.

    “When social security no longer balances out, what they'll do is raise the cap on earnings (currently around $92k) on it until it does.”

    You will not have to wait for Social Security to have a problem. In 2008, the Medicare costs are expected to exceed the Medicare tax collections and ALL income is already taxes for Medicare. There is no cap like for Social Security. What is you solution to this problem?

    “You can't mix accrual and cash basis accounting which is what you're doing.” It has NOTHING to do with cash and accrual based accounting.


    What I am saying and what the Fed Chief, Treasury Sec. and Comptroller General is saying is that when you look at the cost of Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid and compare that with expected revenue growth ( including reasonable GDP growth ) there will not be enough money, at the current tax rates, to meet the promises we have made. Spending will increase sharply due to 68 Million Boomers receiving benefits and the idea that we can balance the budget given the entitlements without added tax revenue can not happen so long as 1 plus 1 equals 2.



    The figures I give are the agreed upon numbers by non-insane people.

    Saying something that isn't true over and over doesn't suddenly make it true.
    Then I would suggest you begin saying something different!

    on Nov 03, 2007
    More about the increasing spending for Social Security and Medicare:


    A 'fiscal hurricane' on the horizon
    By Richard Wolf, USA TODAY
    WASHINGTON — The comptroller general of the United States is explaining over eggs how the nation's finances are going to hell. Although the retirement of the baby boomers will be an important milestone in the demographic transition--the oldest baby boomers will be eligible for Social Security benefits starting next year--the change in the nation's demographic structure is not just a temporary phenomenon related to the large relative size of the baby-boom generation. Rather, if the U.S. fertility rate remains close to current levels and life expectancies continue to rise, as demographers generally expect, the U.S. population will continue to grow older, even after the baby-boom generation has passed from the scene. If current law is maintained, that aging of the U.S. population will lead to sustained increases in federal entitlement spending on programs that benefit older Americans, such as Social Security and Medicare.


    The second cause of rising entitlement spending is the expected continued increase in medical costs per beneficiary. Projections of future medical costs are fraught with uncertainty, but history suggests that--without significant changes in policy--these costs are likely to continue to rise more quickly than incomes, at least for the foreseeable future. Together with the aging of the population, ongoing increases in medical costs will lead to a rapid expansion of Medicare and Medicaid expenditures.


    This is what the Fed Chairman said about the increase in Social security and Medicare spending:

    Although the retirement of the baby boomers will be an important milestone in the demographic transition--the oldest baby boomers will be eligible for Social Security benefits starting next year--the change in the nation's demographic structure is not just a temporary phenomenon related to the large relative size of the baby-boom generation. Rather, if the U.S. fertility rate remains close to current levels and life expectancies continue to rise, as demographers generally expect, the U.S. population will continue to grow older, even after the baby-boom generation has passed from the scene. If current law is maintained, that aging of the U.S. population will lead to sustained increases in federal entitlement spending on programs that benefit older Americans, such as Social Security and Medicare.

    The second cause of rising entitlement spending is the expected continued increase in medical costs per beneficiary. Projections of future medical costs are fraught with uncertainty, but history suggests that--without significant changes in policy--these costs are likely to continue to rise more quickly than incomes, at least for the foreseeable future. Together with the aging of the population, ongoing increases in medical costs will lead to a rapid expansion of Medicare and Medicaid expenditures.
    Comments from Tres. Sec. Paulson:

    Yet the sparring continues. Although Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson recently suggested to reporters that "everything is on the table," Vice President Dick Cheney ruled out any talk of increasing the payroll tax or the amount of income subject to the tax. In April, Bush made an end run around the Senate Finance Committee, using a recess appointment to install an ardent privatization advocate, Andrew Biggs, as deputy commissioner of Social Security. Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., who views privatization as a "settled debate," charged that "this administration is clearly not serious about leaving behind the failed schemes of the past."

    There's no denying the system needs strengthening. Otherwise, its trustees warn, revenues will eventually fall short of outlays, and Social Security will not be able to pay full benefits throughout the 75-year period for which planning is done.


    From Annual Social Security and Medicare Reports:

    Social Security's unfunded obligation - the difference between the present values of Social Security inflows and outflows less the existing trust fund - equals $4.7 trillion over the next 75 years and $13.6 trillion on a permanent basis. The actuarial imbalance expressed as a percent of taxable payroll is 1.95 percent over 75 years and 3.5 percent over the indefinite future. This means that, to make the system whole on a permanent basis, the combined payroll tax rate would have to be raised immediately by about one-third from 12.4 percent to about 15.9 percent, or benefits reduced immediately by 22 percent.

    This report confirms the need for action; the sooner we take action to strengthen Social Security's financial footing, the less drastic the needed reforms will be. President Bush has called for solutions that generate a permanently sustainable Social Security system through bipartisan efforts.


    The 2007 Medicare Trustees Report shows even greater financial challenges. Medicare faces the same demographic trends as Social Security, and, in addition, the system must cope with large increases in health care costs.


    April 23, 2007
    HP-367
    Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. Statement on the 2007 Social Security and Medicare Trust Fund Reports
    WASHINGTON--The Social Security and Medicare Board of Trustees met this afternoon to complete their annual financial review of the programs and to transmit the Trustees Reports to Congress. I welcome my Cabinet colleagues and the Public Trustees, Tom Saving and John Palmer, two well-respected experts in their field. The nation is indeed fortunate to have your service.

    For decades, Social Security and Medicare have provided vital support for Americans. As the baby boom generation moves into retirement, these programs face progressively larger financial challenges. If we do not take action soon to reform Social Security and Medicare, the coming demographic bulge will jeopardize the programs' ability to support people who depend on them. Without change, rising costs will drive government spending to unprecedented levels, consume nearly all projected federal revenues, and threaten America's future prosperity. I urge my friends in Congress to join me in a bipartisan effort to strengthen both programs for future retirees.


    This year's Social Security report again demonstrates that the Social Security program is financially unsustainable and requires reform. In just 10 years, cash flows are projected to turn negative, and the Trust Funds are projected to be exhausted in 2041. Reform is needed and time is of the essence. The longer we delay, the larger the required adjustments will be – and the burden of making those adjustments will fall more heavily on future generations.


    on Nov 03, 2007
    the Trust Funds are projected to be exhausted in 2041.


    and under clinton there were to be exhausted in 2035. so it looks like bush did something after all.
    on Nov 03, 2007

    Reply By: danielost Posted: Saturday, November 03, 2007
    “The Trust Funds are projected to be exhausted in 2041.


    And under Clinton there were to be exhausted in 2035. So it looks like bush did something after all.”

    THE KEY is they will be exhausted. Long before the trust fund is exhausted; the fed must come up with the cash to redeem the Treasury Bonds it has issued to Social Security. Where is the money to come from to pay back that borrowed money?

    The problem with Medicare is far more urgent and the Treasury will need to begin refunding the Bonds in the Medicare trust fund THIS YEAR!!!!!
    on Nov 03, 2007
    THE KEY is they will be exhausted.




    NO THE KEY IS TO BASH BUSH AND IGNORE THE DEMOCRATS. BUSH HAS EXTENDED THE DEMISE OF SOCIAL SECURITY BY 5 YEARS. YOU KEEP SAYING HE HAS DONE NOTHING TO HELP.
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