Bush Spins Job Numbers

Published on December 4, 2005 By COL Gene In Politics

President Bush is patting himself on the back about job creation. Let’s take a look at the truth:

Population growth required 125,000 new jobs EVERY month just to stay even.

During the past three months we have NOT added the 375,000 new jobs.

Since Jan 2001, we have had 1.5 Million MORE people looking for work then jobs created.

Many of the new jobs do not pay a living wage and do not have benefits.

Average weekly wage after inflation is DOWN.

Consumers are increasing their spending by charging it on their plastic. The higher interest rates coupled with the higher credit cards balances are a real problem for the months ahead.

Yes we created more jobs but we are still 1.5 Million short since 2001. Individuals are NOT seeing an increase in the money they have to spend without charging it. For the majority of Americans, the Bush claim of a great economy falls on deaf ears.

Comments (Page 1)

Jim

on Dec 04, 2005

BUSH MUST RESIGN NOW FOR THE GOOD OF THE WORLD!!!

COL Gene

on Dec 04, 2005

That would give us Cheney - From bad to worse!

Jim

on Dec 04, 2005

AN EMERGENCY ELECTION MUST BE CALLED NOW SO WE CAN GET THE DEMOCRATS BACK IN TO SAVE AND STABALIZE THE WORLD!!!

singrdave

on Dec 04, 2005

And yet consumer confidence is very high. Hmmm, what could that tell you?

We'd open up that 125,000/month's worth of jobs if we'd deport all the illegals, right COL?

And the age-old, perennial complaint: where are you getting these numbers? Please provide links. Without them, I can't confirm or deny anything you're claiming.

It only adds to the validity of your rant... I mean, screed... oops, I mean, message.

COL Gene

on Dec 04, 2005

First I do not think you know what a "rant" is. What I posted is nothing like a rant. I have posted facts that have been all over the news.

PollingReport.com

PRESIDENT BUSH – Overall Job Rating in recent news media/nonpartisan national polls

See also: Complete trend

Survey
Approve Disap-
prove Unsure Approve
minus
Dates % % % Disapprove

.

Time 11/29 - 12/1/05 41 53 5 -12

.
FOX/Opinion Dynamics RV 11/29-30/05 42 48 10 -6

.
Cook/RT Strategies 11/17-20/05 41 52 7 -11

.
Gallup 11/17-20/05 38 57 5 -19

.
Diageo/Hotline RV 11/11-15/05 39 59 2 -20

.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 11/11-13/05 37 60 3 -23

.
Newsweek 11/10-11/05 36 58 6 -22

.
Gallup 11/7-10/05 40 55 5 -15

.
FOX/Opinion Dynamics RV 11/8-9/05 36 53 11 -17

.
AP-Ipsos * 11/7-9/05 37 61 -24

.
NBC/Wall Street Journal 11/4-7/05 38 57 5 -19

.
Pew 11/3-6/05 36 55 9 -19

.
AP-Ipsos * 10/31 - 11/2/05 37 59 -22

.
ABC/Washington Post 10/30 - 11/2/05 39 60 1 -21

.
CBS 10/30 - 11/1/05 35 57 8 -22

.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/28-30/05 41 56 3 -15

.
ABC/Washington Post 10/28-29/05 39 58 3 -19

.
FOX/Opinion Dynamics RV 10/25-26/05 41 51 8 -10

.
Gallup 10/24-26/05 41 56 3 -15

.
Pew 10/12-24/05 40 52 8 -12

.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/21-23/05 42 55 3 -13

.
WNBC/Marist RV 10/12-13 & 17/05 41 53 6 -12

.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/13-16/05 39 58 3 -19

.
Diageo/Hotline RV 10/12-16/05 40 57 2 -17

.
FOX/Opinion Dynamics RV 10/11-12/05 40 51 9 -11

.
NBC/Wall Street Journal 10/8-10/05 39 54 7 -15

.
Pew 10/6-10/05 38 56 6 -18

.
AP-Ipsos * 10/3-5/05 39 58 -19

.
CBS 10/3-5/05 37 58 5 -21

.
Newsweek 9/29-30/05 40 53 7 -13

.
FOX/Opinion Dynamics RV 9/27-28/05 45 47 8 -2

.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/26-28/05 45 50 5 -5

.
ABC/Washington Post 9/8-11/05 42 57 1 -15

.
Pew 9/8-11/05 40 52 8 -12

.
Time 9/7-8/05 42 52 6 -10

President Bush: Job Ratings has further details, including full trends, question wordings, etc.
Table excludes organizations (e.g., Harris, Zogby) that use a scale other than approve/disapprove.
RV = registered voters.
* AP-Ipsos question includes a "mixed feelings" option.

Press Release—for immediate release—November 15, 2005
Contact: Christina Kasica, 617-423-2148, ext. 119
(cell phone 617-966-0554)
Thanksgiving 2005 Report:

No Correlation Between Bush Tax Cuts
and Job Creation
Rate of Job Growth at Historic Low After 4 Years of Tax Cuts; Quality of Jobs Poor

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT HERE: Nothing to Be Thankful For (PDF, 2.53 MB).

BOSTON—As outrage in Congress stalls the Bush administration's attempts this Thanksgiving season to extend tax cuts that will primarily benefit the wealthy, a new study examines the administration's claim that tax cuts create jobs—and finds it without merit.

Evidence shows that, historically, changes in tax rates have no discernible effect on employment. Moreover, during the Bush administration, job creation since 2003 has fallen millions of jobs short of the administration’s promises, and is significantly below what would normally be expected even without extraordinary economic stimulus.

“Contrary to what President Bush and his tax policymakers are saying, tax cuts do not automatically create jobs. Tax cuts are just one of many things that can affect job growth,” said Liz Stanton, director of research at United for a Fair Economy (UFE) and a co-author of the report.

“President Bush’s Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, far from delivering on the promises made to create 5.5 million new jobs, has carved out a new low in job recovery after a recession.” said Scott Klinger, another co-author and director of UFE’s tax policy group. “The president’s tax-cutting policy is a failure in this regard, and we need to recognize it as such.”

The report reviewed administration claims that “tax cuts create jobs” and found the following:

*

Reviewed over a six-decade period, changes in tax policy have not resulted definitively in job creation or job destruction; they have no predictable effect on jobs.
*

From June 2003 to December 2004, the administration promised its tax-cutting policy would create 5.5 million new jobs—but only 2.6 million were created, even though 4.1 million would have been expected without any special economic stimulus.
*

The weakness in job creation during an economic recovery that we are currently experiencing is unprecedented since World War II.
*

The number of good quality jobs (defined as those paying at least $16 an hour, providing employer-paid health insurance, and providing a pension) has remained flat at 25% of all workers.
*

Black employment is at 89.6%, compared to 95.2% for whites.
*

Latino workers average more than $10,000 per year less in earnings than whites, and the gap is increasing.
*

While there is no evidence that massive tax cuts create jobs, there is considerable evidence that they contribute to economy-choking deficits.

“No workers have really benefited from President Bush’s tax policies, but blacks and Latinos have suffered disproportionately,” said Gloribell Mota, bilingual education specialist at UFE.

“As the nation prepares for our annual feast of bounty and thanksgiving, many U.S. families will not be participating. This is because the multiple breadwinners each family needs these days don’t all have jobs,” said Anisha Desai, UFE’s program director and a report co-author. “Of those that do, many are not making enough money to pay for turkey and trimmings for everybody in the family.”

“Nothing to Be Thankful For: Tax Cuts and the Deteriorating U.S. Job Market” was co-authored by Anisha Desai, Scott Klinger, Gloribell Mota, and Liz Stanton. The authors are available for interviews by calling 617-423-2148 ext. 119, or emailing ckasica@faireconomy.org. Call for hard copies.

United for a Fair Economy is a national non-profit that spotlights the growing economic divide in the U.S.

COL Gene

on Dec 04, 2005

Consumer debt article:

Debt: consumers juggle big burden
Spread over homes, cars, credit cards and student loans, Americans manage unprecedented debts.
October 10, 2005: 10:22 AM EDT
By Rob Kelley, CNN/Money staff write

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The American consumer has long enjoyed a healthy dose of borrowing, but the sustained low interest rates of recent years have launched consumer debt to near-record levels.

The so-called financial obligations rate -- which measures minimum required debt payments as a percentage of disposable income -- rose to 18.4 percent in the second quarter. This is near the record of 18.8 percent in late 2001.

So the incomes of many American households are heavily tied up in monthly debt payments.

"Low interest rates and rampant house price appreciation have really been driving borrowing," said Scott Hoyt, Direct of Consumer Economics at Economy.com. "As long-term rates finally start to rise, the pace of debt accumulation will slow."

Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate rose to an average 5.98 percent this week, and inflation fears could drive it even higher in weeks to come. In the year-ago period, the 30-year mortgage averaged 5.82 percent. (Full story)

Mortgage borrowing continued its sustained climb, increasing 13.4 percent in the latest quarter -- its seventh consecutive quarter of growth.
Credit cards: putting it on plastic

But it's not all about housing.

Americans' love affair with credit cards has continued unabated recently, with the average credit card debt per household reaching a record $9312 in 2004. That's up a whopping 116 percent over the past 10 years.

And it's expensive debt too: average annual percentage rates (APRs) for September rose to 11.84 percent, compared to 11.56 percent a month earlier. (Full story)

Americans paid over $127 billion in household bills on credit and debit cards last year, and that number is predicted to top $161 billion in 2005, according to CardWeb.com.

Many households have far more plastic than you could fit in a wallet. The average number of bank cards per cardholding household is 19.3 -- typically eight bank cards, eight retail cards and three debit cards.

Bank card delinquencies reached an all-time high in the past quarter, according to ConsumerFlow.com, with 4.81% of accounts missing minimum payments. The Web site's analysts attribute the increase to high energy prices as well as changes making it more difficult to file for personal -- or Chapter 7 -- bankruptcies.

But consumers have seen better interest rates elsewhere, and are increasingly using home refinancing and other fixed rate vehicles.

"They're moving away from bank cards and credit cards -- short-term installment debt -- into various forms of mortgage borrowing with lower interest rates and long terms," said Hoyt.
Auto loans: cars drive debt

Americans have been upgrading automobiles at an impressive clip in 2005. July sales climbed to 20.8 million units on an annualized basis, a sales rate not seen since 1986.

And auto loan maturities are growing in order to make payments more affordable. 88 percent of new car loans are now longer than 48 months, up from 85 percent a year ago, according to the Consumer Bankers Association. 45 percent of loans mature in over 60 months.

But auto loans look to shrink as a percentage of household debt in the near term because of slumping auto sales after Katrina. (Full story)

New vehicle delinquencies declined 18 percent in 2004, and used vehicle delinquencies fell by 3 percent, according to the CBA.
Student loans: schooling stays with you

University prices have escalated rapidly in recent years, with some private schools besting $40,000 a year for education, room and board. With prices like these, it's little surprise that student loans are also on the rise.

During 2002, more than 11 million student loans were made, and Sallie Mae reports that 61 percent of students depended on federal loans to get their bachelor's degrees.

Since 1997, the median in undergrad debt has soared 74 percent to $16,500, according to a 2002 Nellie Mae report, the most recent available.

Grad students have also faced off with higher debts, facing a 72 percent increase in their median debt levels, to $23,700 over the period from 1997 to 2002.

About the only thing looking good for students are the interest rates, which have kept payments lower than they might otherwise be -- $182 in 2002 compared to $161 in 1997.

With the Federal Reserve indicating that its upward march of interest rates won't be ending any time soon, the unique debt situation may not last long.

"The raises in interest rates will reduce the willingness and ability of consumers to continue their pace of borrowing," said Hoyt. "This is both directly -- through the cost of debt -- and indirectly -- because it's likely to slow house price appreciation."

Rising interest rates will soon make debt look a lot less attractive -- and induce consumers to initiate a technique that's been little-seen in recent years -- saving.

_______________________

Consumer interest rates for credit card are way up in October -- read more here. Top of page
The Hot List

Jim

on Dec 04, 2005

" And yet consumer confidence is very high."

Boom and bust...

drmiler

on Dec 04, 2005

See col this is where you screw up! The title is about job creation numbers NOT GW's approval rating!

drmiler

on Dec 04, 2005

" And yet consumer confidence is very high."

Boom and bust...

This just shows how much of a sheeple you are! Try this on for size....you too col.

U.S. November Payrolls Rise 215,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 5%
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy added 215,000 jobs in November, bouncing back from two months of weak job growth triggered by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

The payroll gain was the biggest since July and the economy added 13,000 more jobs in September and October than previously reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The unemployment rate held at 5 percent.

Just an fyi for "both" of you.....the unemployment rate has NOT been this low since 1997!

Jim

on Dec 04, 2005

5 pc is a bad rate for a first world country. The Uk is 2.5 pc.

drmiler

on Dec 04, 2005

5 pc is a bad rate for a first world country. The Uk is 2.5 pc.

WRONG again!

The trend in the employment rate is increasing slightly while the trend in the unemployment rate is flat. The count of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance benefit increased for the ninth month in succession, and the trend is increasing. The number of job vacancies has fallen. Growth in average earnings excluding bonuses is unchanged but growth in average earnings including bonuses has fallen.

The employment rate for people of working age was 74.9 per cent for the three months ending in September 2005, up from 74.7 per cent the previous quarter. The last time it was higher was in the three months to August 1990, when it was 75.0 per cent.

The number of people in employment increased by 123,000 over the quarter and by 334,000 over the year, to reach 28.80 million, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1971. This quarterly increase in employment was entirely due to more full-time workers.

Total hours worked per week increased by 6.5 million over the quarter and by 14.4 million over the year, to reach 923.9 million.

The unemployment rate was 4.7 per cent, little changed both over the quarter and over the year. The last time the rate was lower was in the three months to August 1975, when it was 4.6 per cent. The number of unemployed people fell by 1,000 over the quarter but increased by 41,000 over the year, to reach 1.43 million.

Link

And just maybe you should go read THIS if you think 5% is bad.

Link

COL Gene

on Dec 04, 2005

All that does not change one thing I posted.

For the past three months we have not created enough jobs to deal with population growth.

Since 2001 We are still 1.5 Million jobs below the number of new workers looking for jobs.

many of the new jobs do not pay a living wage.

Average weekly wage after inflation is DOWN.

Individual credit card debt is at an all time high-- More then $8,000 per person.

drmiler

on Dec 04, 2005

And ALL that you posted means "absolutely" zilch! We have NEVER in this country had an unemployment rate of zero. So that would mean that EVERY single president we've EVER had was just as bad! "Show" me the figures on the weekly wage.

And just an fyi....it's general knowledge the when the economy is up, personal credit spending goes up too.

COL Gene

on Dec 04, 2005

What about the jobs not paying a wage that enables people to live. I Think Bush should live on an $8 per hour job.

What about the fact that the Average weekly wage is lower this year then last year?

The increase in personal debt and personal bankruptcy is at an all time high. In 1993 the average credit card debt was about $3,300. Today over $8,000.

GM , Ford are are in real trouble. The airlines are almost all in financial trouble. GE is laying off workers. The federal agency that protects pensions is $22 Billion short of what they need to make good on the pensions. Bush tell us the econmny is great because in one month we created a few jobs. What about the 1.5 Million wokers for which his economic BOOM has failed to create a job? What about the $500 Billion Federal deficit? Interest rate are increasing. Inflation was over 4%. Energy, food and health care cost are up. Yes the economy is really great! Some big corporations like the oil companies are making money on the high prices they charge and Bush and the GOP in Congress have geve the oil companies another $12 Billion in tax cuts. Why would ANYONE give tax cuts to an indutstry that is making record profits? Why did Bush not help the auto companies or the air lines? No he helps his supporters in the oil business. I guess this must be the reason for the job approval ratings Bush has today. We have not had a President in a long time so out of touch with America.

Daiwa

on Dec 04, 2005

Gene, Gene, Gene... George doesn't hire anyone, for one thing, and since when has job creation precisely matched population growth? Try never.

This argument has been over for a long time now - the forces which coalesce to create those jobs have virtually nothing to do the actions of the executive. They all claim credit when job growth is good and blame everyone/everything else when it's bad; Democrat, Republican, doesn't matter.

If you have to resort to this, your bag of tricks is close to empty.

Cheers,
Daiwa

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